Syria dreamed of a new dawn after Assad, but economic misery clouds its future

Syria dreamed of a new dawn after Assad, but economic misery clouds its future
​The increases triggered demonstrations across Syria is the most widespread since Assad’s fall. Protesters burned tyres, blocked key roads, including the highway linking Damascus to Aleppo, and disrupted crude tanker convoys heading towards refineries in central Syria.

Nearly two years after Bashar al-Assad was ousted, Syrians who had hoped for a better life under President Ahmed al-Sharaa are still struggling to afford basic necessities. Rising food, fuel and electricity costs are deepening an economic crisis that has fuelled public anger against the new administration.The government’s inability to ease the financial burden on households was laid bare in September, when a sharp increase in fuel prices triggered widespread protests. The unrest forced authorities to partially roll back the decision, according to a Reuters report.The government had raised diesel prices by 40 per cent on September 14, taking them to 175 Syrian pounds per litre from 125 pounds. It also increased the prices of 95-octane petrol by 28 per cent to 195 pounds, 90-octane petrol by 26 per cent to 185 pounds, and household and industrial gas by around 9 per cent.The increases triggered demonstrations across Syria is the most widespread since Assad’s fall. Protesters burned tyres, blocked key roads, including the highway linking Damascus to Aleppo, and disrupted crude tanker convoys heading towards refineries in central Syria. Some demanded the dismissal of the energy and economy ministers and the head of the Syrian Petroleum Company.“We don’t want higher wages. All we want is lower diesel and other fuel prices,” news agency Reuters reported citing protestor Yasser Salim in Aleppo.Another protester, Bassam al-Ali, appealed directly to al-Sharaa. “Border crossings bring in millions of dollars. We don’t want new roundabouts or malls. We just want to live,” he said.Days later, in mid September, Syria’s energy minister Mohammed al-Bashir announced a partial retreat, offering diesel at three different prices depending on its intended use. Locally produced diesel would be sold at 115 Syrian pounds per litre for heating, agriculture and other eligible users. A second grade, sourced with the help of what Bashir described as “friendly countries”, would cost 150 pounds for productive and service sectors and heavy machinery. The standard grade would remain at 175 pounds per litre, while petrol and gas prices would remain unchanged.Bashir said the government was selling standard diesel below its production cost of 206 pounds per litre. He also announced plans to restart small local refineries, known in Syria as “burners”, with a combined crude-processing capacity of up to 35,000 barrels per day. The move followed a meeting with al-Sharaa over the fuel crisis.The protests were the latest indication of the economic pressures confronting the new administration. In a separate report by BBC , several Syrians struggling to afford food, pay electricity bills and find employment said their financial circumstances had deteriorated since Assad’s removal.The United Nations Development Programme estimates that 90 per cent of Syrians live below the poverty line, compared with around a third before the civil war began in 2011.The government has cut long-standing subsidies as part of an austerity drive. The price of bread, a staple food, has increased tenfold, while electricity prices have risen by several hundred per cent for some consumers. Higher fuel costs have also pushed up transportation expenses and added pressure on farmers, according to the BBC.The administration has adjusted public sector salaries and pensions, but rising prices have eroded the benefit of the additional payments.For many households, even basic food has become difficult to afford. Fatima Saleh Eid, a 50-year-old cleaner in a suburb of Damascus, told the BBC that her family had reduced its food consumption and could no longer afford meat.“We eat more sparingly now. We can’t afford chicken anymore, nor meat. We only eat vegetables but even [that is] expensive,” she said.Another resident, Nabil al-Remhein, a 63-year-old pensioner said that his family had been reduced to one meal a day. None of his four adult children could find work. His electricity bill accounted for around a third of the family’s income, forcing them to cut back on lighting and switch off their refrigerator for about five hours a day.“We’re now having only one meal a day. It’s tragic,” he said.Marwan Bashour, a 68-year-old pensioner, said his monthly income was around $90, equivalent to the public sector minimum wage. He said he had been forced to borrow money and sell household belongings to meet expenses, as per BBC.“Sometimes I borrow money, sometimes I sell things from my house, like an old pot or plates that we never used, gifts that were given to us. I’ve even had to sell furniture,” he said.The difficulties have also extended to access to healthcare. One man in his 20s told that his family could no longer afford medicines for his father, who had a heart condition. A young woman said she and her four children could afford a proper meal only once every two days.Syria’s economic difficulties have been compounded by disruptions to fuel supplies. Its energy ministry spokesperson Abdulhamid Salat said the September price increases were a temporary measure driven by higher global procurement costs and the country’s heavy dependence on imports. He said prices could be revised up or down depending on changing conditions, news agency Reuters reported.Syria imported around 60,000 barrels per day of Russian crude this year, although Damascus told Washington it was willing to sharply reduce those purchases. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have reduced production, prompting Moscow to restrict petrol and diesel exports.The three-month closure of Syria’s largest refinery, Baniyas, for comprehensive maintenance has further increased dependence on expensive imports. Bashir said the overhaul was expected to raise its refining capacity to around 130,000 barrels per day.Since February, Syrian diesel prices have more than doubled, while 95-octane petrol prices have risen around 86 per cent. Over roughly the same period, benchmark Brent crude gained around 44 per cent.The economic crisis comes as the country continues to deal with the destruction left by more than 13 years of civil war. The conflict killed around half a million people and displaced half the population. Large parts of Syria remain in ruins, while many families unable to afford rent live in partially destroyed buildings.The World Bank estimates Syria’s reconstruction costs at $216 billion, making the task of rebuilding heavily dependent on foreign assistance and investment.The new administration has secured some international gains. Sanctions imposed during the Assad era have been lifted, and the United States has removed Syria from its list of state sponsors of terrorism. However, the economic benefits of these developments have yet to translate into relief for many households.Dr Haid Haid, a Syrian columnist and consulting fellow at Chatham House, said that a “significant portion of the population” was worse off than before Assad’s fall. He described the economic crisis as “one of the most dangerous issues” facing the government.“Part of [the crisis] is related to the lack of [financial] resources and the legacy left by the former regime,” he said.“But it’s also the direct impact of the new policies that are moving [Syria] towards a liberal and free-market sort of economy, which don’t take into account the impact on people”.Syrian economist Samir Aita, who heads the Paris-based Circle of Arab Economists, said the government’s handling of public expectations and economic policies had contributed to the crisis.“It’s unsustainable. If they don’t change, I fear chaos,” he said.However, some Syrians remain willing to give the new administration time. BBC quoted Abu Mahmoud, a cab driver, who said,”They inherited the country bankrupt, so people need to be patient. Things don’t happen overnight.”

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