The TOI correspondent from Washington: Rapid advances by Iran-backed Houthis along Yemen’s Red Sea coast is bringing the group dangerously close to controlling another key maritime chokepoint in the region, raising fresh concerns from New Delhi to Washington to European capitals in between about the security of global trade, energy supplies, and shipping.Reports from the region on Friday that Houthi forces had reached Perim – or Mayun – Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces withdrew from the strategically located outpost sent alarms in the global strategic affairs community even as the Trump establishment was in the throes of a Republican political fiesta in Dallas.The developments follow the reported Houthi capture of Mocha, a strategically important Red Sea port whose coffee beans infused regions as far apart as Chikmagalur and Seattle. The gains bring the Houthis – named after its late founder Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi but otherwise known as Ansar Allah (supporters of god) — substantially closer to Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow waterway connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.For New Delhi, this development brings even greater headache following the Strait of Hormuz fiasco. Bab el-Mandeb is effectively the western gateway to India’s maritime neighborhood and an essential link in the sea route connecting India with Europe through the Suez Canal. Any sustained Houthi ability to threaten or disrupt shipping through the strait could increase freight rates, insurance costs and transit times for Indian exporters and importers. Ships avoiding the Red Sea would instead need to make the much longer journey around the Cape of Good Hope.India’s exposure is particularly significant because its refineries have become major suppliers of petroleum products to Europe. A prolonged disruption would therefore affect India not merely through the cost of imports but also through the economics of one of its important export markets. If both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb become constrained, the world’s energy and shipping system would face a potentially unprecedented pincer around two critical maritime arteries.The developments come as the US artificial-intelligence company Anthropic reported that a Houthi-linked group in northern Yemen used its Claude AI model in work on missile and rocket systems — a reminder that the movement’s military capabilities are evolving even as its forces make significant gains on the ground.The battlefield successes of Houthis — dismissed initially as flip-flop wearing desperadoes — have generated a torrent of dramatic claims on social media, including assertions that Saudi forces surrendered to Houthis and the Iran-backed group has captured large quantities of American military equipment. Videos and photographs appeared to show Houthi fighters with US-manufactured Oshkosh M-ATV armored vehicles that had been supplied to Saudi-backed Yemeni forces. Much of the most dramatic material originates from Houthi sources or their supporters, ridiculed as photoshop experts by western analysts.Still, reports of Houthi success have alarmed some experts in Washington. “The Houthis’ rapid advance is just the beginning of the blowback effects we are now going to face as a result of our counterproductive policies in the Middle East & because of this senseless war in Iran,” noted Joe Kent, Former Director of the National Counterterrorism Center who has been advocating an end to U.S foreign military entanglements.Indeed there have been reports that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman sought US strikes against the Houthis and that President Trump declined the request, rebuffing two “desperate” phone calls. Washington’s reluctance to get embroiled even more in the region reflects the central problem confronting U.S: how to protect freedom of navigation and support Saudi security without becoming drawn into another open-ended military campaign in Yemen.The Houthis have demonstrated in recent years that they do not need conventional military superiority to impose disproportionate costs. Drones and relatively inexpensive missiles can force heavily armed commercial vessels to alter their routes, while the threat itself can raise insurance and shipping costs. Control of territory around Bab el-Mandeb Strait and its approaches gives them a much stronger position from which to monitor, threaten and potentially disrupt shipping. That could have profound consequences for India, which has already deployed naval assets to protect merchant shipping during previous Houthi attacks.The Anthropic disclosure adds a potentially important technological dimension after the company said the Yemen-based group used Claude to assist with weapons projects, including guidance, navigation and control software. Anthropic did not establish that AI had enabled the Houthis to field a new operational missile, but the episode illustrates how AI could lower the technical barriers facing non-state weapons developers.The Houthi success also creates immediate geopolitical complications for Pakistan, which is both a major defense partner of Saudi Arabia and has sought to maintain channels with Iran. A new defense arrangement involving Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey that an armed attack on one member is to be regarded as an attack on all three creates a potentially awkward test for Rawalpindi. While a Pakistani military intervention against the Houthis would put Islamabad into direct conflict with an Iran-backed movement, potentially damaging its relationship with Tehran, standing aside could raise questions about the practical meaning of its new security commitment to Riyadh.
