One is a Left-wing icon challenging Trump’s dominance of Latin America. The other is a Right-wing nationalist who helped persuade the US president to attack Iran. Yet, despite their ideological differences, Lula and Netanyahu have shown why writing political obituaries can be a dangerous business.
Opposite poles, one instinct
They could hardly be further apart. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, leads Latin America’s biggest left-wing party. Benjamin Netanyahu, 77, heads the most right-wing government in Israel’s history and is Donald Trump’s closest ally abroad. One has spent the year denouncing American power in his hemisphere. The other spent it pulling American power into his.
The majority mark in Israel is 61
Yet within a span of three days, both did what their critics thought they could not. Lula came from behind to win a fourth term on October 25. Two days later, Netanyahu turned an election night that the exit polls called a rout into something closer to a draw.Both have given master classes in the oldest skill in politics: Staying alive.Interestingly, US President Donald Trump had a stake in both contests. He openly endorsed Netanyahu, and he has long counted the Bolsonaro family as friends. His scoreline is 1-1.
Lula: The comeback that stalled the Donroe Doctrine
Brazil’s first round on October 4 looked like the end. Flavio Bolsonaro, senator and eldest son of the jailed former president, took about 47% of the valid vote to Lula’s 45%, defying final polls that had the president ahead. Lula admitted he had expected to win outright. The first survey afterwards gave Bolsonaro a six-point runoff lead.Three weeks later, the official count gave Lula 51.79% to 48.21%. The result halted a right-wing wave that had already delivered victories for Jose Antonio Kast in Chile, Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia and Keiko Fujimori in Peru.How did he do it? Lula went back to the streets and went after the Bolsonaro family directly, raising its alleged links to militias. Flávio had greeted his first-round lead by proclaiming the end of the Workers’ Party era. It proved premature.
Lula won the Brazil elections with over 4 million votes
Trump’s “Donroe Doctrine”, his muscular update of the Monroe Doctrine, has split the hemisphere into friends and foes since the US seized Nicolas Maduro in January. Brazil was its biggest prize. Flavio had promised to join the US-backed Americas Shield security pact and to free his father. Lula has halted the Trump wagon. He is now the most powerful leftist still standing in Washington’s way.The defeat has since turned into a spectacle. Flavio crossed into Argentina before flying to Miami with his family, after Trump offered them a way out. From the United States, he now casts himself as a victim of political persecution. Lula, meanwhile, is pressing ahead with his agenda.
Netanyahu: Written off, not counted out
In Israel, the script ran the other way. Almost every pre-election poll put Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc in front. When voting closed on October 27, the broadcasters’ exit polls showed Eisenkot ahead by two or three seats, and his supporters partied in Tel Aviv.The count told another story. With about 90% of ballots tallied, Likud is the largest party with 26 seats, and Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc holds 53 seats to Eisenkot’s 48.Turnout hit a historic high. Arab Israelis voted in record numbers, while Netanyahu’s own base came out to defend him. Likud’s response was telling: It accused the Arab parties of stealing the election. Trump, for his part, claimed his endorsement had turned the tide and hailed a come-from-behind performance.Let’s be clear: This is not an outright victory for Netanyahu. His bloc is eight seats short of a majority and down from 68 in the outgoing Knesset. But the opposition’s arithmetic is worse. Arab parties won a record 19 seats, enough to give the anti-Netanyahu camp a majority, yet every Zionist opposition party except the Democrats has ruled out relying on them.Roughly 450,000 absentee ballots remain, official results are due on November 4, and coalition talks could drag on for months. If they fail, a unity government or yet another election both leave Netanyahu in office. Until then he stays on as caretaker, with full war powers, as a renewed war with Iran looms.
No side has reached a majority mark in the Israeli elections.
Netanyahu is already playing for time. He has assured his far-right partners. President Isaac Herzog has urged the parties to avoid another election and keep an open mind, while Washington says it has not decided whether to weigh in.
What survivors share
The two leaders from the opposite spectrum share a toolkit. Both have come back from the dead before: Lula from 580 days in prison, Netanyahu from defeats in 1999 and 2021 and a corruption trial that has shadowed him since 2020. Both turned Trump into fuel. Lula wrapped himself in sovereignty against American tariffs and threats; Netanyahu wore Trump’s endorsement, which the US president now claims turned the tide.Both also owe something to opponents who could not close the deal. Flavio Bolsonaro let a two-point lead slip away in three weeks. Eisenkot’s camp has an anti-Netanyahu majority in the new Knesset but no agreed way to use it.
The art of survival
The twin results say something about the moment. Voters on both continents are angry, yet anger has not produced clean breaks. Leaders with deep networks and long memories still know how to bring their people to the polls, and how to make rivals pay for hesitation.Lula’s fight is over; he will be sworn in on January 1, 2027. Netanyahu’s is not, and he may yet lose the coalition game. But no one should hurry to write his political obituary.